彼得·希夫警告【美元崩潰是不可避免的 】

彼得·希夫世界經濟有一個直言不諱的自由主義觀點。這不是巧合，他將主講嘉賓之一的第一個  自由論壇會議2013年  12月4日至8。他的自由意志論者的看法，主要是由他的父親，所以他讀的書比任何影響。從年輕時代，他與父親政府，經濟學，憲法，和美國歷史有關的主題討論。他的個人觀點和自由市場導向的角度來看，是一個完美的結合，即使這些想法是相反的經濟專家和政府與廣大。希夫：“很多人只是買的建立，他們接受了很多廢話。

為什麼美元的崩潰是不可避免的

當前的經濟問題，在西方世界大多數國家所共享。它主要歸結為過高的債務水平站不住腳的社會福利國家的政府和太多的承諾。然而，美國是最痛苦的這種疾病。人們可以比較它與癌症，更加先進，在某些特定的地方。美國已經採取債務水平無與倫比，超越任何政府曾答應。

最高債務佔國內生產總值的比例在發達國家，即使是日本，比美國一個更好的局面。如果在日本打一場危機之前，美元崩盤，美元危機很可能會延期，只是因為錢會流入美元。對於日本的債務，該國幾乎沒有壞的形狀像美國。“他們一直在試圖保持日元疲軟，以出口到美國，這是一個愚蠢的戰略”，根據希夫。日本擁有超過萬億美元的美國國債。“他們可以出售部分國債，以彌補其債務的至少一部分。這傷害了美國，如果他們開始銷售。“

因為美國有美元作為世界儲備貨幣的特權，美國經濟一直能夠進化的方式，沒有其他國家可以。沒有在世界上其他國家一樣，美國是債務，廉價的資金，人為低利率，以及進口的依賴。希夫說：“當這一切都結束了，美國經濟將遭受一樣，沒有其他。也許這將是一個其他國家是美國做錯了破壞國家敲響了警鐘。“

當美元成為世界儲備貨幣[1944]，這是一個從根本上不同的國家，它是今天。當時，美元是由黃金作後盾。大家持有美元可以兌換黃金在一個預先設定的速度。黃金需求，所以美元是一諾千金。在那段時間，美國是世界上最大的債權國。它有一個巨大的貿易順差，它在世界各地的投資。

事實是，美國曾經是如此之大，但這並不意味著它仍然是。沒有美國這麼大的屬性，值得世界儲備貨幣，今天存在。

“現在美國是其昔日的自我鏡像。我們是世界上最大的債務國，最大的貿易赤字，美元的背後是什麼。我們有堆積如山的債務。如果不是美元儲備貨幣的今天，沒有人會接受它成為儲備貨幣。“

只有內爆將處以紀律政治家之間

希夫的根本問題是相關的政客誰不是在做正確的事情。他說：

“尋找債務上限的慘敗，我們沒有做正確的事。當時，被誤認為是正確的事情更多的債務和不計後果的支出。任何約束的債務被視為一個問題。目前美國是解決“問題”的類型是限制債務，減少債務水平。

傳統的智慧，主要集中在華盛頓，是如此的錯誤，只有一個完整的內爆可處以紀律。外部驅動的危機最終將迫使政府採取正確的行動。這將是一個貨幣危機。“

眼下，美元有所減弱，但就是沒有什麼比什麼是未來，根據希夫。由於美元開始崩潰，美國人將保護自己的積蓄還剩下什麼。只有到那時，政府行使購股權以購買外國資產，外匯，貴金屬。

希夫指出，涉及到這樣一個危機的風險。雖然不正確的，目前美國的形象，是一個完全自由的市場經濟。當美元危機來襲時，政客們通常會濫用自由市場的看法時指出，美國只是有太多的資本主義和自由。不變的是，它會導致甚至更多的政府監管。

一個新的世界儲備貨幣：黃金

什麼會取代美元一旦下降呢？希夫認為，世界不能用歐元或日元，因為他們是幾乎一樣糟糕，美元作為世界儲備貨幣。在一天結束的時候，這些都是法定貨幣，只不過承諾的支持。

當國家（美國以外）有一個信心的問題，他們的貨幣，以恢復市場信心的方式是什麼？他們連結的美元，目的是施加紀律。但是當美元崩潰，這可能國家掛鉤的貨幣嗎？唯一的事情，將是有意義的穩定美元和重建信心是金。黃金是美國的主要儲備。美國有90％的儲量，黃金和不外匯儲備。

黃金是美元霸權的國際儲備前。要回的金標準，將導致兩件事情之一：要么黃金價格的上升或一切的價格下降。希夫認為，這是很容易調整的價格高達一件事，而不是其他資產的價格每下降。他的期望是，金價將走從這裡高得多。

金融保護提示

隨著金融抑制的前景，這將最終導致了嚴重的美元危機，金融保護成為強制性的。但什麼是最好的方式來保護嗎？

對沖貨幣危機最明顯的是物理貴金屬的所有權，理想的銀行體系之外。

但應該仍持有的銀行賬戶的錢，即使傳統的銀行賬戶之間存在固有的風險。在這方面，最新的令人震驚的消息是國際貨幣基金組織（IMF）的儲蓄賬戶上所有公開討論了超10％的稅。

這就是為什麼彼得·希夫建議考慮離岸銀行帳戶。歐洲太平洋銀行，成立由希夫自己，非美國居民的槓桿銀行業的答案。歐元太平洋銀行帳號結合離岸外包地點的安全儲備銀行（這意味著該銀行沒有貸款）的好處。因此，所有的存款是存款人立即可用。銀行帳戶具有雙重功能：它可作為一種儲蓄和支票帳戶，因此它適用於所有類型的金融交易。可選的，帶有金或銀的借記卡在銀行賬戶：賬戶業主可以選擇自己的錢轉換成黃金，以維持本國貨幣的購買力。

“沒有一個政府可以沒收這些銀行賬戶。這一點很重要，因為政府可以隨時徵稅國內銀行帳戶，不一定直接稅，但透過增設額外法定貨幣[通過印鈔，這是貨幣通脹。“

Peter Schiff has an outspoken libertarian view on the world and economics. It is no coincidence he will be one of the keynote speakers at the first Liberty Forum Conference 2013 on December 4 to 8. His libertarian view was mainly influenced by his father, more so than any of the books he has read. From a young age, he discussed with his father topics related to government, economics, the Constitution, and history of the US. His personal view and the free market oriented perspective were a perfect fit even if these ideas were in contrast with the majority of economic experts and governments. According to Schiff “many people just buy the establishment; they accept a lot of nonsense.”

Why the collapse of the dollar is unavoidable

The current economic problems in the Western world are shared by most countries. It mostly boils down to excessive debt levels and too many promises by governments in untenable social welfare states. However, the US is suffering the most from this disease. One could compare it with cancer that is more advanced in some specific places. The US has taken debt to a level unparalleled, beyond anything the government had promised.

Even Japan, with the highest debt to GDP ratio in the developed world, is in a better situation than the US. If a crisis in Japan hits before the collapse of the dollar, it might postpone the dollar crisis simply because money would flow into the dollar. For all the debt that Japan has, the country is not nearly in as bad a shape as the US. “They have been trying to keep the Yen weak in order to export to America, which is a foolish strategy,” according to Schiff. The Japanese have more than a trillion dollars of Treasuries. “They could sell part of their Treasuries to cover at least a part of their debts. It would hurt the US if they started selling.”

Because of the privilege of the US having the dollar as the world reserve currency, the US economy has been able to evolve in a way that no other nation could. Like no other country in the world, the US is dependent on debt, cheap money, artificially low interest rates, and imports. Schiff explains: “When all this comes to an end, the US economy will suffer like no other. Maybe it will be a wake-up call to other countries in what the US did wrong in terms of the destruction of the country.”

When the dollar became the world reserve currency [in 1944], it was a fundamentally different country than it is today. At that time, the dollar was backed by gold. Everyone holding dollars could exchange it for gold at a pre-set rate. Gold was available on demand, so the dollar was as good as gold. In that period of time, the US was the world’s biggest creditor nation. It had a huge trade surplus which it invested in the rest of the world.

The fact that the US once was so great does not mean it still is. None of the attributes that made the US so great, and deserving of the world’s reserve currency, exist today.

“America is now its mirror image of its former self. We are the world’s biggest debtor, with the biggest trade deficit, and the dollar is backed by nothing. We have mountains of debt. If the US dollar was not the reserve currency today, nobody would accept it to become the reserve currency.”

Only an implosion will impose discipline among politicians

Schiff’s fundamental concerns are related to politicians who are not doing the right thing. He says:

“Looking at the fiasco of the debt ceiling, we are not doing the right thing. For the time being, the right thing is wrongly considered to be more debt and reckless spending. Any restraint on debt is seen as a problem. The type of ‘problem’ the US is solving currently is the limitation on debt, not the decrease of debt levels.

The conventional wisdom, mainly in Washington, is so wrong that only a complete implosion can impose discipline. An externally driven crisis will finally force the government to take the right action. It will be a currency crisis.”

Right now, the dollar is weakening somewhat, but that is nothing compared to what is coming, according to Schiff. As the dollar starts to collapse, Americans will protect what is left of their savings. Only then will the government exercise options to acquire foreign assets, foreign exchange, and precious metals.

Schiff points to a risk related to such a crisis. Although incorrectly, the current image of America is one of a totally free market economy. When the dollar crisis hits, politicians will typically abuse the free market perception by stating that the US simply had too much capitalism and freedom. Invariably, it will lead to even more government regulation.

A new world reserve currency: gold

What would the dollar be replaced with once it falls? Schiff believes the world cannot use the euro or the yen as the world reserve currency because they are nearly as bad as the dollar. At the end of the day, those are all fiat currencies backed by nothing but promises.

When countries (other than the US) have a confidence problem with their currency, what is the way to restore confidence? They link it to the dollar with the aim to impose discipline. But when the dollar collapses, what could countries peg their currency to? The only thing that would make sense to stabilize the dollar and recreate confidence is gold. Gold is the main reserve of the US. The US has 90% of its reserves in gold and no foreign reserves.

Gold was the international reserve before the dollar hegemony. Going back to the gold standard would result in one of the two things: either the price of gold goes up or the price of everything else goes down. Schiff believes that it is much easier to adjust the price of one thing up instead of the price of every other asset down. His expectation is that the gold price will go much higher from here.

Tips for financial protection

With the outlook of financial repression which will ultimately lead to a severe dollar crisis, financial protection becomes mandatory. But what are the best ways to protect?

The most obvious hedge against a currency crisis is physical precious metals ownership, ideally outside of the banking system.

But one should still hold money in a bank account, even if traditional bank accounts are inherently at risk. In that respect, the latest shocking news was the IMF publicly discussing a super tax of 10% on all savings accounts.

That is why Peter Schiff proposes to consider an offshore bank account. Euro Pacific Bank, founded by Schiff himself, was the answer to the leveraged banking industry for non-US residents. A Euro Pacific Bank account combines the benefits of an offshore location with the safety of a reserve bank (which means that the bank is making no loans at all). As such, all deposits are immediately available to deposit holders. The bank account has a double function: it serves as a savings and checking account; hence it is suitable for every type of financial transaction. Optionally, the bank account comes with a debit card in gold or silver: account owners can opt to convert their money into gold to preserve the purchasing power of their currency.

“No government can confiscate these bank accounts. That is important as governments can always tax a domestic bank account, not necessarily by direct taxation but by the creation of additional fiat money [through money printing, which is monetary inflation].”