由斯蒂芬·吉爾福伊爾| @ Sarge986它曾經是，當我談到黃金，那聽了會看著我，好像我是在一些古老的外語口語的人，沒有人能理解。最近，當我站在我的點在紐約證券交易所的交易大廳，願意談論金融市場或棒球的人誰也願意，越來越多的我會問金。一個星期其實有好幾次。
如果你錯過了，當世界黃金協會公佈的數據第一季度，黃金總需求同比上漲環比增長21％，主要是由於以投資為目的的需求。共有來自2015年第一季度需求2016年第一季度首飾，工藝用途年度下滑，以及央行甚至提出購買。以投資為目的的需求增長了122％，比去年同期。那說了些什麼。它說，我不是一個人在我的想法。如果央行（近年來巨大的購房者）再次上手，當心了。
那麼，什麼是它關於它拒絕只是悄悄離去這種野蠻的遺跡？它是錢嗎？它是一種商品？坦率地說，我認為這是兩者兼而有之。當然有，即使是貨幣主義的最不純不能否認的特點：財富，可分性存儲，即使在危機時期，交換媒介。
如果你按照我的筆記，你知道我現在向金分配是7.5％。我們把它帶到這個水平從5％在12月下旬，我們已經在最近幾週服用甚至更高的調情，儘管我們已經拖著我們的腳。我的想法是，如果身體（這是對自己的最好方式）為使在1300 $，你可能希望在10％的長途每盎司另一個運行。相反，如果這種黃色金屬是跑其他的方式，我覺得你在$ 1,210減倉從Q1扔掉你的利潤了。
黃金是一個非常困難的資產的法定貨幣方面重視，並在其上一個人的短期看法真的取決於全球貨幣政策。如果FOMC收緊在不久的將來，而地球的其他部分仍然是寬鬆的，有可能會在價格回調，至少以美元計算。但是，如果有任何企圖收緊-或者即使有一個失敗的嘗試，這可以減少獸鬆動。我們都看到了什麼時，得到鬆動此獸可以做。瘋狂的事情已經發生和可能再次發生。
長期？我敢打賭，你看到了IMF是如何迫使歐元區允許希臘推遲支付其紓困貸款的利息，甚至本金到2040年有沒有在我們中間有誰真正相信全球債務超級週期將永遠不會走到了結束？不是明天，不是明年。但是會有一個做在在一些點。
有一種可能性，金價將在未來的貨幣體系中發揮作用。我看這是保險的方式來保護你的投資組合中分得一杯羹應壞人永遠打的復位按鈕。
我錯了嗎？我當然希望如此。
Gold is insurance against the bad guys hitting the reset button
It used to be that when I spoke about gold, the folks that listened would look at me as if I were speaking in some ancient foreign language that nobody could understand. Lately, as I stand at my spot on trading floor of the New York Stock Exchange, willing to talk the financial markets or baseball with anyone who's also willing—more and more am I asked about gold. Several times a week in fact.
In case you missed it, when the World Gold Council released its Q1 data, total demand for gold was up 21% year-over-year, largely due to demand for investment purposes. There were yearly declines in demand from Q1 2015 to Q1 2016 for jewelry, technology purposes, and even purchases made by central banks. Demand for investment purposes was up 122% year-over-year. That says something. It says that I am not alone in my thoughts. If the central banks (huge buyers in recent years) get started again, watch out.
So, what is it about this barbarous relic that it refuses to just go away quietly? Is it money? Is it a commodity? Quite frankly, I think it is both. There certainly are characteristics that even the most impure of monetarists can not deny: store of wealth, divisibility, and even at times of crisis, a medium of exchange.
If you follow my notes, you know my current allocation toward gold is 7.5%. We took it to that level from 5% in late December, and we've flirted with taking it even higher in recent weeks, though we have dragged our feet. My thought is that if the physical (which is the best way to own) were to make another run at $1,300 an ounce that you may want to be at 10% for the long haul. Conversely, if the yellow metal were to run the other way, I think you lighten up at $1,210 before throwing away your profits from Q1.
Gold is a very difficult asset to value in terms of fiat currency, and one's short-term view on it really depends on global monetary policies. Should the FOMC tighten in the near future—while the rest of the planet is still easing—there will likely be a pullback in price, at least in dollar terms. However, should there be no attempt to tighten—or maybe even if there is a failed attempt—this could cut the beast loose. We've all seen what this beast can do when it gets loose. Crazier things have happened and can happen again.
Long-term? I bet you saw how the IMF is pressuring the eurozone to allow Greece to put off paying any interest or even principal on its bail-out loans until 2040. Does anyone among us truly believe that the global debt super-cycle will never come to an end? Not tomorrow, not next year. But there will be a do-over at some point.
There is a likelihood that gold will play a role in the next monetary system. I look at this as insurance—a way to preserve a slice of your portfolio should the bad guys ever hit that reset button.
Am I wrong? I sure hope so.
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