環球投資有限公司
|
2012年1月3日 - 9:58
2011年既是一個驚人的和令人失望的一年，白銀投資者。所有最失望的是誰買在4月的高點，當銀幾乎達到 $ 50。然而，這些投資者需要記住的是，不久前，人們已超過 10美分或更少的價格變化心亂。在路上不太遠，$ 29銀和50銀美元之間的差異，似乎也甚微。
在白銀市場的基本面支撐，將有助於提醒我們的讀者，為什麼胃腸金屬 DMCC擁有最終將跑贏黃金，白銀，最終我們可能會看到在通貨膨脹的是什麼類型的高點 - 而不是惡性通貨膨脹 - 環境。央行干預來解決主權債務問題目前的水平，我們希望看到更多的經濟收縮，為 2012年的第一部分，更印鈔過多，這將導致通貨膨脹，並最終惡性通貨膨脹，條件。這僅需要更大的速度發生水平，在世界儲備貨幣，我們預期將開始發生時，債券投機者關注的是從歐洲轉移到美國的信心喪失。
這些基本面的調整，也將有助於提醒我們，不應該被視為白銀的實物所有權盡可能多的為短期投資，而是一個中期形式的財富保值和增長。我們看到的情景，最有可能打在未來 1至3年出這些類型。
銀作為保值和財富的乘數
如金，銀，歷來被確認為真正的金錢和財富的存儲。然而，預計將出現在銀現在投資的機會比黃金更明顯。由於銀，黃金還沒有收到在媒體上同樣的重視，較少投資者了解它。這是開始改變，但白銀仍然很早就在其牛市相比，黃金，這在其牛市的第二階段已取得進展，進一步的。目前，白銀現貨價格很大程度上取決於衍生工具為基礎的車輛，如交易所買賣基金，期貨及期權，這是高槓桿，並不能準確地跟踪其相關資產的真實價值的變動。簡單地表示，大量的紙張被交換，但幾乎沒有實物白銀甚至實際上是由這些機構負責分發這些文件的承諾舉行。
隱形銀損耗將意味著最終更大的收益
由於抑制價格自然導致基於這些衍生金融工具，投資者目前能夠在極其低的價格購買較大數額的實物白銀。這是導致全球白銀庫存已經很小，在驚人的速度迅速枯竭。銀一直被低估，因為它在面對瓶頸，升水和物理短缺（在某些地區）的外觀其實只是證明的實物白銀市場之間存在明顯的斷開，紙白銀市場。最後，一個更完整的斷開預計在實物白銀的航班將出現不利於票據市場的蒸騰。
為什麼全球白銀供應日益枯竭等原因。黃金通常是囤積，而白銀作為貨幣金屬囤積和工業消費。由於沒有其他金屬的電導率超過銀，有幾十數以千計的電子和工業應用，目前正在使用這種金屬。銀也有其他類型，由於其出色的反射和抗菌性能等行業相關的應用程序。然而，銀的每個應用程序使用的金額是如此微乎其微，它變得不可能從任何特定的單位回收銀。當一台電腦，手機或CD扔在一個垃圾填埋場，在每個產品中存在的微量銀不能收回，它是永遠失去了。因此，在上個世紀，大約 90％的全球白銀庫存已消耗和枯竭永遠。這使得最後的銀 1億盎司近似存在面對地球，哪個行業和投資者正在爭相購買。全球競爭已經開始。
銀經歷了一個在過去 60年的損耗率不斷增加。此外，這是很容易在地面的銀大部分已採取的。僅工業需求不斷增加，每年約 18％，作為新的工業應用不斷湧現。此外，投資者的需求繼續增加，尤其是在新興國家，以驚人的速度。
隨著工業的枯竭已經發生的結果，只有約 10％的全球白銀庫存仍然存在。在過去 70年，在世界各國政府和央行已經在市場上傾銷其銀，並已消耗和枯竭的大部分銀。沒有已知的政府儲備銀在世界不復存在，即使黃金仍是世界各地的中央銀行儲存。由於對白銀的需求超過 [或將很快超過供應取決於正在使用的源]，仲裁者必須價格，特別是考慮到有只有約 1億盎司左全球白銀供應。在今天的目前的價格，它不會採取許多億萬富翁進入市場，並購買了其餘的全球銀供應，這將發送白銀的價格，以天文數字的高度。
我們可以期望在未來
觀察以前的銀，如在1980年（見圖表）高潮的最後一個牛市週期，我們可以得到一個更好地了解什麼期望這次：
1966年，白銀被賣為每盎司1.29美元。在1980年1月，銀見頂於每盎司48.70美元。這是3675％的大幅增加。然而，比較二〇一一年至2012年，20世紀 70年代的白銀牛市，只給了我們什麼期望，這個時候，我們就可以開始一個最小的窗口，白銀市場將開放給整個世界。不像在1980年，這個市場將不會僅限於西歐和北美。此外，世界各地的人口有許多投資者心態的人比在20世紀 70年代。出於這個原因，我們可以找到許多世界各地更多的百萬富翁和億萬富翁比我們便可以。近似十倍的世界儲備貨幣的貨幣基礎增加，在決定白銀的最終價格也將發揮重要組成部分，為將白銀的價格已經等了很長一段時間壓制的事實。然而，在未來最重要的因素白銀的真實價格發現機制，發動會被的銀 20世紀 70年代年期間存在的大部分已經通過幾十年來在堆填區丟棄不要的工業，醫療和電子應用。我們將最有可能永遠也看不到，銀。
在投資界未來的供給和需求衝擊
事實上，這麼多的銀已按行業，現在實際上在世界的黃金比白銀。這確實是一個驚人的問題，當人們意識到在地球有大約 12盎司的白銀，每盎司黃金。這就是被稱為“自然率”之間的黃金和白銀。“貨幣的比率”，歷來約 16盎司白銀，一盎司黃金。然而，在我們目前的時間，相當令人難以置信的，實際上是在地球上更多的投資的成績比銀的黃金。投資表尚未打開，但翻轉。相關的供應和需求的經濟規律通常不會允許這一現狀持續下去。事實上，市場的調整是在目前這個時候開始出現。
在寫這篇文章的時，本銀黃金貨幣的比率接近50比1，雖然這是在不斷的波動狀態。這意味著，1盎司黃金可以買了約 50盎司的白銀，即使現在有更多的黃金比白銀提供給投資者。這個比例有望回落至其歷史悠久的貨幣比例，這為之前，每1盎司黃金約 16盎司白銀。因為有實際上比地球上的黃金白銀在這個時候，由於工業用電量，這是可以想像的銀可以過衝這個歷史的貨幣比例達到 8，9或10到1的數字等。雖然有通常比黃金更容易獲得銀 12日至16倍之間，目前，有令人難以置信的銀金多。這一事實似乎支持超看漲的說法，白銀可能有一天會成為比黃金更寶貴。然而，在投資者的看法轉變會發生這種情況成為可能。
未來可能出現的銀歷史新高
以下圖表列出了一系列更為現實的未來的高點，銀，最終可能達到：
這個圖表的第一列顯示了1980年的48.70美元每盎司的名義高。第二列顯示了這個 1980年的高通貨膨脹調整使用，目前美國政府的官方的消費物價指數的計算方法。今天的正式通脹調整銀高142.02，美元，這意味著，銀有一個很長的路要走，之前，我們甚至可以開始談論創紀錄的價格。然而，在使用這種方法計算通脹，因為它帶來了美國政府在1980年，以取代前一種方法計算，美國歷屆政府所使用的的問題。新的計算方法有助於使通脹水平似乎比實際更容易接受。因此，第三列的這個圖表顯示了真正的通貨膨脹調整 1980年的高，目前使用的官方計算約 3倍。在第三列中使用的計算是計算由卡特總統的政府所採用的方法，和他之前的總統。
最後兩列研究銀高位，從黃金的角度來看，白銀價格比。在黃金地段的討論，如果黃金是做今天的儲備貨幣，貨幣基礎的傳統會計，我們希望看到在此之前牛市至少$ 10,000的價格是超過。雖然我們希望看到更高的價格比這個作為全球財富奔湧進入這個有限的市場和貨幣基地菲亞特繼續擴大，我們更喜歡數字數據和過去的歷史經驗，可以通過驗證，如貨幣黃金，基本會計處理過程中，發生在1934年和1980年。
如前所述，胃腸金屬預計目前的黃金白銀比率，以糾正其歷史標準的16到1，這需要1盎司黃金可以購買 16盎司的白銀。上面的圖表四列顯示，如果在這個相對保守的頂部 10,000元的黃金 - 銀在其歷史性的16點 01分，平均黃金 - 銀將每盎司625美元。我們還解釋上述銀到過衝這 16:1的平均水平，這是通常會發生什麼當一個趨勢已經等了很長一段時間對齊如何是完全可能的。如果銀達到 10比1的比例，像過去那樣在整個歷史上不同時期之前，那麼我們將看到每盎司1000美元的價格，表現出來的第五縱隊。
在現實中，有沒有確切的方法，以確定究竟有多高的黃金和白銀最終將。然而，有一點是肯定的，那就是，黃金和白銀仍處於比較其他全球資產低估的程度，以及是如何被低估銀相比，黃金。金價達到 1980年的873美元，在2008年的第一個月的名義高，而白銀僅達到 1980年的名義在2011年夏天的高。
顯然，這兩種資產仍然是國有及低估的白銀，更比黃金。雖然胃腸金屬 DMCC項目，白銀的表現將優於黃金從長遠來看，其投機性的質量和波動並不適合每一個人。不過，我們建議，那些可以處理這種波動應該有身體接觸，以銀和其顯著的基本面仍然的 - 大部分 - 未被發現。
The Possibility of $1,000 Silver before Hyperinflation
Global Investments Ltd
|
January 3, 2012 - 9:58am
2011 was both an amazing and disappointing year for silver investors. The most disappointed of all are those who bought in during the April highs, when silver almost reached $50. However, what these investors need to remember is that not too long ago, people were fretting over changes in prices of ten cents or less. Not too far down the road, the difference between $29 silver and $50 silver will also seem rather minimal.
A look at some of the fundamentals which underpin the silver market will help remind our readers why G.I. Metals DMCC holds that silver will ultimately outperform gold, and what type of highs we might eventually see in an inflationary - and not hyperinflationary - environment. With current levels of central bank intervention to solve sovereign debt problems, we expect to see more economic contraction for the first part of 2012, followed by even more excessive money printing which will lead to inflationary, and eventually hyperinflationary, conditions. This only requires a greater level of velocity to occur, along with a loss of confidence in the world reserve currency, which we expect will begin to happen when bond speculators' attention is moved from Europe to America.
A revision of these fundamentals will also help remind us that physical ownership of silver should not be viewed as much as a short-term investment, but rather, a mid-term form of wealth preservation and growth. We see these types of scenarios most likely playing out within the next 1 to 3 years.
Silver as a Hedge and Multiplier of Wealth
Silver, like gold, has historically been recognized as real money and a store of wealth. The opportunities expected to arise from investing in silver now, however, are even more pronounced than those of gold. Because silver has not received the same attention as gold in the media, fewer investors know about it. This is beginning to change, but silver is still very early on in its bull market as compared to gold, which has progressed further in the second phase of its bull market. Presently, the silver spot price is largely dictated by the movements of derivative-based vehicles such as ETFs, futures and options, which are highly leveraged and cannot accurately track the true value of their underlying asset. Expressed simply, lots of paper is being exchanged, but little physical silver is actually even held by these institutions responsible for distributing these paper promises.
Stealth Silver Depletion will Mean Eventual Greater Gains
Because of the suppression in price that naturally results from these derivative based financial vehicles, investors are currently able to purchase larger amounts of physical silver at exceedingly low prices. This is causing the already small global silver inventory to be depleted at an alarmingly fast rate. The fact that silver has remained as undervalued as it has in the face of bottlenecking, backwardation and the appearance of physical shortages (in certain regions) only testifies to the evident disconnect that exists between the physical silver market, and the paper silver market. Eventually, a more complete disconnect is expected to transpire in which a flight to physical silver will occur to the detriment of the paper market.
There are other reasons why the global silver supply is becoming depleted. Gold is normally hoarded, while silver is hoarded as a monetary metal and consumed as an industrial one. Because no other metal surpasses silver in terms of electrical conductivity, there are literally tens of thousands of electronic and industrial applications presently being used for this metal. Silver also has other types of applications related to other industries due to its excellent reflective and anti-bacterial properties. However, the amounts of silver used per application are so minimal, that it becomes next to impossible to recycle silver from any particular unit. When a computer, cell phone or CD is thrown out in a landfill, the minute amount of silver that existed in each product cannot be recovered; it is lost forever. Consequently, in the last century, approximately 90% of global silver inventory has been consumed and depleted forever. This leaves a final 1 billion ounces of silver approximated to exist on the face of the earth, which industry and investors are currently competing to buy up. The global race has begun.
Silver has experienced an ever increasing rate of depletion for the last 60 years. Furthermore, most of the silver which is easily accessible in the ground has been taken already. Industrial demand alone is increasing at about 18% per year, as new industrial applications keep emerging. Moreover, investor demand continues to increase at a staggering rate, especially in emerging nations.
As a result of the industrial depletion which has taken place, only about 10% of global silver stockpiles remain. All governments and central banks in the world have dumped their silver on the market over the last 70 years, and the majority of this silver has been consumed and depleted. No known government reserves of silver exist anymore in the world, even though gold is still stockpiled by central banks around the world. Because the demand for silver is exceeding [or will soon be exceeding] supply [depending on which source is being used], the arbiter must be price, especially when considering that there is only approximately 1 billion ounces of global silver supply left. At today's present price, it would not take many billionaires to enter the market and buy up the remaining global supply of silver, which would send the price of silver to astronomical heights.
What We Might Expect in the Future
In observing previous silver bull cycles such as the last one which climaxed in 1980 (see chart below), we can gain a better understanding of what to expect this time around:
In 1966, silver was being sold for $1.29 per ounce. In January of 1980, silver peaked at $48.70 per ounce. That is a massive increase of 3675%. However, comparing the 1970s silver bull market with that of 2011-2012 only gives us a minimal window into what we can begin to expect, as this time, the silver market will be open to the world at large. Unlike in 1980, this market will not be restricted to Western Europe and North America. Furthermore, populations around the world have much more of an investor mindset than people did in the 1970s. For this reason, we can find many more millionaires and billionaires around the world than we could then. The approximate tenfold increase of the monetary base of the world's reserve currency will also play an important part in determining silver's ultimate price, as will the fact that silver's price has been suppressed for such a long period of time. However, the most important factor in the future unleashing of silver's true price discovery mechanism will be the fact that a large portion of the silver that existed during the 1970s period has been used up and thrown away in landfills through decades of industrial, medical and electronic applications. We will most likely never see that silver again.
The Coming Supply and Demand Shock in the Investment Community
Indeed, so much silver has been used up by industry that there is now actually more gold in the world than silver. This is truly an astonishing matter when one realizes that there are approximately 12 ounces of silver in the earth to every ounce of gold. This is what is termed the 'natural ratio' between gold and silver. The 'monetary ratio' has historically been approximately 16 silver ounces to one ounce of gold. Yet at our present time, quite incredibly, there is actually more investible grade gold on the earth than silver. The investment tables have not been turned, but flipped. The economic laws related to supply and demand would not normally allow this present situation to persist. Indeed, a market correction is starting to occur at this present time.
The present silver to gold monetary ratio at the time of writing this article is close to 50 to 1, although this is in a continual state of fluctuation. This means that 1 ounce of gold can be bought with approximately 50 ounces of silver, even though there is now more gold than silver available to investors. This ratio is expected to come down to its historic monetary ratio, which as preceded, is around 16 silver ounces to every 1 ounce of gold. Because there is actually more gold than silver on the earth at this time due to industrial consumption, it is conceivable that silver could overshoot this historical monetary ratio and reach a number such as 8, 9 or 10 to 1. Although there has usually been between 12 to 16 times more available silver than gold, presently, there is incredibly more gold than silver. This fact would seem to support the ultra-bullish argument that silver might one day become more valuable than gold. However, a great shift in investor perception would need to occur for this to become a possibility.
Possible Future Silver Highs
The following chart outlines a series of more realistic future highs that silver might eventually reach:
The first column of this chart shows the 1980 nominal high of $48.70 per ounce. The second column shows this 1980 high in inflation adjusted terms using the present U.S. government's official CPI calculation method. Today's official inflation adjusted high for silver is $142.02, which means that silver has a long way to go before we can even begin to speak about record prices. However, there is a problem in calculating inflation using this method, as it was brought in by the U.S. government in 1980 to replace the former method of calculation used by previous U.S. administrations. The new method of calculation helps make inflation levels seem more acceptable than they actually are. Hence, the third column of this chart shows the true inflation adjusted high of 1980 to be approximately 3 times the presently used official calculation. The calculation used in this third column was calculated using the method employed by President Jimmy Carter's administration, and those presidents who preceded him.
The final two columns examine possible silver highs from the perspective of the gold to silver ratio. As discussed in the section on gold, if gold is to do its traditional accounting of today's reserve currency monetary base, we expect to see prices of at least $10,000 before this bull market is over. Although we expect to see higher prices than this as global wealth rushes to enter into this limited market and fiat monetary bases continue to expand, we prefer to stick to numbers that can be validated by data and past historical experiences, such as the gold to monetary base accounting process which occurred in both 1934 and 1980.
As previously explained, G.I. Metals expects the current gold to silver ratio to correct itself to its historic standard of 16 to 1, which entails being able to purchase 1 ounce of gold with 16 ounces of silver. Column four of the above chart shows that with gold at this relatively conservative top of $10,000 - if silver is at its historic 16:1 average in relation to gold - silver will be $625 per ounce. We have also explained above how it is entirely possible for silver to overshoot this 16:1 average, which is normally what happens when a trend has been misaligned for such a long period of time. If silver does reach a 10 to 1 ratio as it has done before at different times throughout history, then we would be seeing a price of $1000 per ounce, as demonstrated in the fifth column.
In reality, there is no precise way to determine exactly how high gold and silver will eventually go. One thing is sure, however, and that is the degree to which gold and silver are still undervalued in comparison to other global assets, and just how undervalued silver is compared to gold. Gold reached its 1980 nominal high of $873 in the first month of 2008, whereas silver only reached its 1980 nominal high in the summer of 2011.
Clearly, both assets are still under-owned and undervalued, with silver much more so than gold. Although G.I. Metals DMCC projects that silver will outperform gold in the long run, its speculative quality and volatility is not for everyone. However, we suggest that those who can handle this volatility should have physical exposure to silver and its remarkable fundamentals which are still - for the most part - undiscovered.
沒有留言 :
張貼留言